# How many confirmed cargo thefts will Verisk CargoNet report for Q3 2026?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/cargo-theft-incidents-q3-2026  
**Type:** Numeric forecast  
**Status:** active  
**Deadline:** 2026-10-01  
**Category:** events  
**Current consensus:** 801  
**Forecasts:** 1

## Description

Cargo theft has shifted from physical break-ins toward strategic theft built on identity theft and double brokering, and estimated losses reached about $725 million in 2025. [Verisk CargoNet](https://www.cargonet.com/cargo-theft-data/) recorded 596 confirmed cargo thefts within 767 total supply chain crime events in the first quarter of 2026; total events fell about 5% from a year earlier while estimated losses held near $132 million.

This market asks how many confirmed cargo thefts Verisk CargoNet will record for the third quarter of 2026. Q3 spans the summer peak, when tighter capacity and higher freight values tend to raise both the opportunity for theft and the payoff. The open question is whether the confirmed-theft count climbs back toward its 2025 pace or the softer early-2026 volume holds.

## Resolution criteria

Resolves to the number of confirmed cargo thefts in the United States and Canada for the third quarter of 2026 (July, August and September), as reported by [Verisk CargoNet](https://www.cargonet.com/cargo-theft-data/) in its Q3 2026 Supply Chain Risk Trends analysis. "Confirmed cargo theft" is the subset of verified thefts CargoNet distinguishes from its broader count of total supply chain crime events; for reference, CargoNet reported 596 confirmed cargo thefts for Q1 2026 and 2,646 for full-year 2025. The figure used is the one stated in CargoNet's initial quarterly release for Q3 2026, under its standard delayed-reporting adjustment; later revisions do not change resolution. If CargoNet reports the quarter only in monthly increments, the three months are summed. If CargoNet does not publish a discrete confirmed-cargo-theft figure for Q3 2026, the market resolves on the confirmed cargo theft total for July through September 2026 as compiled from CargoNet's reporting.

## Source links

- [Verisk CargoNet](https://www.cargonet.com/cargo-theft-data/)

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/cargo-theft-incidents-q3-2026_