# Will annualized U.S. data-center construction spending post a year-over-year decline in any quarter before the end of 2027?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/data-center-construction-yoy-decline-2027  
**Type:** Binary (Yes/No)  
**Status:** active  
**Deadline:** 2028-04-01  
**Category:** indices  
**Current consensus:** 100%  
**Forecasts:** 1

## Description

U.S. data-center construction has roughly tripled since 2022, running near a $50 billion annualized rate in early 2026 on the U.S. Census Bureau [Value of Construction Put in Place](https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html) survey, which began breaking out data centers as a separate line in 2024. That build-out has become a major source of flatbed freight, through structural steel, transformers, switchgear and the grid expansion that follows it.

The spending is concentrated and increasingly debt-financed. This market asks whether the cycle cools enough to register a year-over-year decline in any quarter through the end of 2027.

## Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if, for any calendar quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2027, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of U.S. private data-center construction spending (U.S. Census Bureau Value of Construction Put in Place, data-center line), averaged across the quarter's three monthly readings, is lower than the same quarter one year earlier. Read each quarter from the Census release roughly two months after the quarter ends, at [census.gov/construction](https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html). Resolves NO if no such quarter occurs through the Q4 2027 release. The data-center series is subject to monthly revision, so the quarterly average is used to smooth revisions.

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/data-center-construction-yoy-decline-2027_