# How many weeks in Q2 2026 will the EIA national average diesel price remain above $4.50/gallon?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/diesel-above-450-weeks-q2-2026  
**Type:** Numeric forecast  
**Status:** active  
**Deadline:** 2026-07-08  
**Category:** rates  
**Current consensus:** 10  
**Forecasts:** 9

## Description

Diesel is at $5.38/gallon. The EIA's March forecast revised the 2026 average to $4.12 — up 20% from the prior estimate — but that average assumes a decline from current levels as Brent crude is forecast to fall below $80/barrel by Q3. This market isn't asking where diesel ends up — it's asking how long the pain lasts. Every week above $4.50 compounds losses for carriers whose fuel surcharges don't fully offset the cost. The answer depends almost entirely on Hormuz: if shipping resumes, diesel drops fast. If the toll system persists, $4.50+ could be the floor for months.

## Resolution criteria

Count the number of weekly EIA national average diesel price readings between April 1 and June 30, 2026 that are at or above $4.50/gallon. There are 13 possible weekly readings in Q2. Source: [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/)

## Source links

- [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/)

## Similar markets

- [Will the national average diesel price fall below $3.25/gallon at any point in Q2 2026?](https://www.rigload.com/markets/diesel-below-325-q2-2026.md)
- [Will the national spot truckload rate (SONAR NTI.USA) exceed $3.15/mile at the end of June 2026?](https://www.rigload.com/markets/nti-spot-rate-june-2026.md)
- [What will the EIA national average diesel price be on June 30, 2026?](https://www.rigload.com/markets/diesel-price-forecast-june-2026.md)

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/diesel-above-450-weeks-q2-2026_