# Will the national average diesel price fall below $3.25/gallon at any point in Q2 2026?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/diesel-below-325-q2-2026  
**Type:** Binary (Yes/No)  
**Status:** resolved  
**Deadline:** 2026-07-01  
**Category:** rates  
**Current consensus:** 36%  
**Forecasts:** 14

## Description

EIA forecasts diesel averaging $3.41/gal in Q2, but the $3.25 threshold would represent the lowest sustained diesel prices since 2021. This level would meaningfully reduce operating costs for carriers and could accelerate equipment replacement decisions.

## Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if any weekly EIA reading between April 1 - June 30, 2026 shows U.S. national average below $3.25. Otherwise NO. Source: [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/)

## Source links

- [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/)

## Resolution note

The EIA U.S. on-highway diesel national average never approached $3.25 in Q2 2026.

## Similar markets

- [Will DAT dry van contract rates show month-over-month growth in April, May, AND June 2026?](https://www.rigload.com/markets/dat-contract-rate-growth-q2-2026.md)
- [What will the DAT national average flatbed spot rate average in Q2 2026?](https://www.rigload.com/markets/dat-flatbed-rate-q2-2026.md)
- [Will the national spot truckload rate (SONAR NTI.USA) exceed $3.20/mile at the end of July 2026?](https://www.rigload.com/markets/nti-spot-rate-july-2026.md)

---

_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/diesel-below-325-q2-2026_