# Will diesel prices rise more than 15% from their 2026 low point to their 2026 high point?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/diesel-price-volatility-2026  
**Type:** Binary (Yes/No)  
**Status:** resolved  
**Deadline:** 2027-01-01  
**Category:** rates  
**Current consensus:** 100%  
**Forecasts:** 4

## Description

Diesel volatility directly impacts carrier budgeting and fuel surcharge strategies. Forecasts suggest Q4 prices will be higher than Q2, but the magnitude of swing determines whether carriers can effectively hedge fuel costs. A >15% swing would match 2024-2025 volatility patterns.

## Resolution criteria

Calculate the percentage increase from the lowest weekly average to highest weekly average in calendar year 2026 using EIA data. Resolves YES if increase ≥15%, otherwise NO. Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/diesel-price-volatility-2026_