# Where will the federal funds rate stand at the end of 2026?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/fed-funds-year-end-2026  
**Type:** Multiple choice  
**Status:** active  
**Deadline:** 2026-12-09  
**Category:** events  
**Forecasts:** 1

## Description

The Federal Reserve's policy rate sits at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Coming into 2026 the path pointed toward gradual cuts, but inflation has firmed. The [consumer price index](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) rose 3.8% in the year through April, the fastest since 2023 and led by energy, while the FOMC's [April minutes](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260429.htm) tied the rise in core goods prices to tariffs.

The Fed's [March projections](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm) still penciled in one rate cut for 2026, but futures markets have since pushed expected cuts back and now price a rate hike as a real possibility. Those decisions feed straight into goods demand and freight volumes, the demand side our [Cass shipments market](https://www.rigload.com/markets/cass-shipments-yoy-december-2026) tracks. This market asks where the federal funds rate stands after the Fed's final 2026 meeting, on Dec. 9.

## Resolution criteria

Resolves to the option matching the upper bound of the federal funds target range announced at the close of the FOMC meeting on Dec. 9, 2026, compared with the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. "Lower than today (a rate cut)" resolves if the upper bound is 3.50% or lower. "Unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%" resolves if the range is unchanged. "Higher than today (a rate hike)" resolves if the upper bound is 4.00% or higher. Only the year-end level matters, regardless of any moves at earlier 2026 meetings. Source: the FOMC policy statement at [federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/fed-funds-year-end-2026_