# When will commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resume?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/hormuz-shipping-resume-2026  
**Type:** Multiple choice  
**Status:** active  
**Deadline:** 2027-02-01  
**Category:** events  
**Forecasts:** 12

## Description

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to Western-aligned commercial traffic since the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, 2026. Pre-crisis, more than 100 tankers transited daily, carrying roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Current traffic is near zero for non-Chinese, non-Iranian-flagged vessels. Diesel has jumped from $3.65 to above $5 a gallon in three weeks. This market asks when commercial shipping returns to meaningful volume.

## Resolution criteria

Resolves to the option containing the first date on which the 7-day rolling average of commercial tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz exceeds 50 per day, as reported by S&P Global Market Intelligence, UANI shipping tracker, or equivalent AIS-based vessel tracking data. The 50-transit threshold represents approximately half the pre-crisis baseline. If no 7-day average exceeds 50 transits before Dec. 31, 2026, resolves to "Not in 2026." Rig Load editorial team will designate the primary data source at resolution.

## Market note

We are tracking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and will resolve this market once sustained shipping activity is confirmed. No decision has been made yet.

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/hormuz-shipping-resume-2026_