# Will U.S. domestic intermodal container volume grow at least 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/intermodal-domestic-volume-q3-2026  
**Type:** Binary (Yes/No)  
**Status:** active  
**Deadline:** 2026-11-16  
**Category:** indices  
**Current consensus:** 0%  
**Forecasts:** 1

## Description

Domestic intermodal moves 53-foot containers on lanes that compete directly with over-the-road truckload, so it is the rail segment most sensitive to truckload pricing. With truckload spot rates near cycle highs through the first half of 2026 and domestic intermodal spot rates still well below them, the question is how much freight the gap pulls onto the rails.

Through May 2026, domestic container volume was running about 4.9% ahead of 2025 year to date, and up 1.7% year-over-year in May, on [IANA](https://www.intermodal.org/intermodal-volume-analyzer) data. This market asks whether that growth reaches at least 5% in the third quarter. A companion market asks whether intermodal [pricing power returns](https://www.rigload.com/markets/jbhunt-intermodal-revenue-per-load-q3-2026) alongside the volume.

## Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if U.S. domestic container intermodal volume for the third quarter of 2026 (July, August and September) is at least 5.0% higher than the same three months of 2025, as reported by the [Intermodal Association of North America](https://www.intermodal.org/intermodal-volume-analyzer). The figure is the sum of IANA-reported domestic container volume across the three months; trailers and international (ISO) containers are excluded. Resolves NO otherwise. IANA volumes are subject to revision; the figures as published in IANA's monthly releases covering Q3 2026 will be used.

## Similar markets

- [Will the Cass Freight Shipments Index reach 1.02 or higher in May 2026?](https://www.rigload.com/markets/cass-shipments-may-2026.md)
- [Will the ATA Truck Tonnage Index show MoM growth from April to May 2026?](https://www.rigload.com/markets/ata-truck-tonnage-index-show-mom-growth-april-may-2026.md)
- [Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June 2026 exceed 50.5?](https://www.rigload.com/markets/ism-manufacturing-pmi-june-2026-exceed-505.md)

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/intermodal-domestic-volume-q3-2026_