# Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June 2026 exceed 50.5?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/ism-manufacturing-pmi-june-2026-exceed-505  
**Type:** Binary (Yes/No)  
**Status:** resolved  
**Deadline:** 2026-07-02  
**Category:** indices  
**Current consensus:** 70%  
**Forecasts:** 10

## Description

Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction (<50) for most of 2025. Breaking above 50.5 signals not just expansion but solid growth in manufacturing activity. Freight demand is heavily weighted to manufacturing output.

## Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if June 2026 Manufacturing PMI >50.5. Otherwise NO. Source: [Institute for Supply Management](https://www.ismworld.org/)

## Source links

- [Institute for Supply Management](https://www.ismworld.org/)

## Resolution note

June ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 53.3%, down a touch from May's 54.0 but the sixth straight month of expansion and comfortably clear of 50.5. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-53-3-june-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302814991.html

## Similar markets

- [What will the BTS Transportation Services Index freight component read for May 2026?](https://www.rigload.com/markets/bts-tsi-freight-may-2026.md)
- [What will the BLS PPI for long-distance truckload freight read for June 2026?](https://www.rigload.com/markets/ppi-truckload-june-2026.md)
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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/ism-manufacturing-pmi-june-2026-exceed-505_