# Will the number of active for-hire motor carrier authorities decrease by more than 5% in 2026?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/motor-carrier-authority-decline-2026  
**Type:** Binary (Yes/No)  
**Status:** active  
**Deadline:** 2027-01-01  
**Category:** events  
**Current consensus:** 89%  
**Forecasts:** 9

## Description

FMCSA enforcement actions, voluntary exits, and bankruptcies are removing capacity at unprecedented rates. A >5% decline would remove 40,000+ authorities and be the largest single-year contraction since FMCSA began tracking.

## Resolution criteria

Compare total active interstate for-hire motor carrier authorities on January 1, 2026 vs December 31, 2026. Resolves YES if decline is >5%. Otherwise NO. Source: FMCSA SAFER database authority counts.

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/motor-carrier-authority-decline-2026_