# Will spot rates exceed contract rates on DAT dry van at any point in 2026?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/spot-vs-contract-rates-2026  
**Type:** Binary (Yes/No)  
**Status:** resolved  
**Deadline:** 2027-01-01  
**Category:** rates  
**Current consensus:** 100%  
**Forecasts:** 2

## Description

Spot above contract signals tight capacity and carrier pricing power. Spot has traded below contract for the entire 2023-2025 downturn. A flip would indicate the market has fundamentally turned, triggering contract rate increases in the following 6-12 months.

## Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if at any point in 2026, publicly reported DAT dry van national average spot rate (all-in $/mile) exceeds national average contract rate. Otherwise NO. Source: DAT public blog posts/press releases.

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/spot-vs-contract-rates-2026_