# Will BLS report truck transportation employment below 1,500,000 in any month of 2026?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/truck-transportation-employment-2026  
**Type:** Binary (Yes/No)  
**Status:** resolved  
**Deadline:** 2027-01-01  
**Category:** indices  
**Forecasts:** 0

## Description

November 2025 employment hit 1,509,600—the lowest since early pandemic. Breaking below 1.5M would represent a 6% decline from the 2022 peak of 1,587,700 and signal that capacity is tightening enough to potentially inflect rates.

## Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if any monthly seasonally adjusted BLS reading in 2026 shows truck transportation employment (NAICS 484) below 1,500,000. Otherwise NO. Source: https://www.bls.gov/ces/

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/truck-transportation-employment-2026_