# Will truck transportation employment fall below 1,425,000 in 2026?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/truck-transportation-employment-below-1425k-2026  
**Type:** Binary (Yes/No)  
**Status:** active  
**Deadline:** 2027-02-28  
**Category:** indices  
**Current consensus:** 60%  
**Forecasts:** 5

## Description

BLS Current Employment Statistics reports monthly seasonally adjusted employment for NAICS 484 (Truck Transportation). As of March 2026, the series stood at 1,464,100 — the lowest reading since late 2017 and down 0.8% from February. The industry has shed workers for three consecutive months. Federal and state immigration enforcement, including Indiana's April 1 revocation of nearly 1,800 non-domiciled CDLs, is accelerating capacity exits. Rising diesel costs above $5.40 a gallon, tariff-driven freight volume declines and a wave of carrier bankruptcies are adding pressure. A drop below 1,425,000 would represent a 2.7% decline from current levels — modest by historical standards but significant given the structural forces now converging on the trucking labor market.

## Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if any monthly seasonally adjusted BLS CES reading for NAICS 484 (Truck Transportation), series CES4348400001, falls below 1,425,000 in any month of calendar year 2026. Resolves NO if all twelve monthly readings remain at or above 1,425,000. Source: [BLS Current Employment Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ces/)

## Source links

- [BLS Current Employment Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ces/)

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/truck-transportation-employment-below-1425k-2026_