# Will SONAR contract van rates hit $2.75/mile before October 2026?

**URL:** https://www.rigload.com/markets/van-contract-rate-275-q3-2026  
**Type:** Binary (Yes/No)  
**Status:** active  
**Deadline:** 2026-10-01  
**Category:** rates  
**Current consensus:** 56%  
**Forecasts:** 9

## Description

FreightWaves SONAR VCRPMF.USA (national average contract van rate, final reporting) sits at $2.48/mile in early April 2026. Capacity is tightening — OTRI doubled since November to 14.46% in March, spot rates are up 23% year over year, and the contract-spot spread has compressed to $0.12. The question is whether sustained tightening translates into real contract repricing before Q4, or whether macro headwinds (diesel/Iran, consumer demand uncertainty) cap the run.

## Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if the FreightWaves SONAR VCRPMF.USA daily reading equals or exceeds 2.75 on any single day between the market open date and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves NO if VCRPMF.USA does not reach 2.75 at any point during that window. Data source: FreightWaves SONAR VCRPMF.USA (Van Contract Rate Per Mile, Final Reporting, national). In the event FreightWaves discontinues or renames this index, resolution will use the closest available successor metric for national average contract van rates.

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_Rig Load — freight market forecasting. Crowd consensus is public; sign in to submit a forecast. Source: https://www.rigload.com/markets/van-contract-rate-275-q3-2026_