How It Works

Rig Load is simple: we ask questions about the freight market, you make predictions and we track who gets it right.

1. Browse Markets

We post prediction markets on freight rates, industry indices and major events. Each market has a clear question and a resolution date — the date we'll check the answer.

Examples:

"What will the national dry van spot rate be in Q1 2025?"
"Will diesel prices exceed $4.00/gallon by March?"
"Will the OTVI exceed 12,000 in January?"

2. Make Your Forecast

For yes/no questions, simply vote Yes or No.

For numeric questions (like rate predictions), enter your best estimate using the slider or input field.

15-Minute Change Window

You have 15 minutes to change your mind after submitting. After that, your forecast is locked. This ensures everyone has skin in the game and can't just follow the crowd at the last minute.

3. See the Consensus

Every market shows the crowd consensus — the aggregate of all forecasts. Watch how it shifts as new predictions come in and market conditions change.

4. Resolution & Scoring

When a market's resolution date arrives, we check the actual outcome against the official data source (DAT, FreightWaves, EIA, etc.) and score everyone's predictions.

Base Score

Your base score reflects prediction accuracy:

For yes/no questions (0-100 points):

Correct prediction = 100 points
Incorrect prediction = 0 points

For numeric questions (0-150 points):

Exactly right = 150 points
Score follows a quadratic curve based on your percentage error — small misses cost little, but larger errors are penalized increasingly
Numeric questions earn 1.5x points because predicting an exact value is harder than choosing yes or no

Numeric scoring examples:

5% off → ~135 points
10% off → ~122 points
20% off → ~96 points
30% off → ~74 points
50% off → ~38 points

Early Bird Bonus (up to +25 points)

We reward conviction! Forecast early and earn bonus points if you're right.

The earlier you forecast, the higher your potential bonus
Bonus scales with market duration - longer markets offer more bonus potential
Maximum bonus: +25 points (for markets 100+ days, forecasting when market opens)
Bonus decreases as the resolution date approaches
Bonus only awarded for correct predictions

How it works:

The maximum bonus depends on how long the market runs. The formula is: max bonus = market days ÷ 4 (capped at 25).

Examples:

100+ day market → up to 25 bonus points
60-day market → up to 15 bonus points
36-day market → up to 9 bonus points
16-day market → up to 4 bonus points

This rewards the greater conviction required to make long-range forecasts. The bonus you earn is based on how early you forecast within the market's timeframe.

What counts as "correct"? For yes/no questions, you need to pick the right answer. For numeric questions, your prediction must be within 5% of the actual outcome to qualify for the bonus.

Maximum Score

Yes/No questions: Maximum 125 points (100 base + 25 early bonus)

Numeric questions: Maximum 175 points (150 base + 25 early bonus)

Numeric questions earn 1.5x base points because they require more precision than yes/no predictions.

5. Climb the Leaderboard

Your accuracy is tracked over time. The best forecasters rise to the top of the leaderboard. Build your reputation as someone who actually knows where the freight market is heading.

Leaderboard Rankings

The leaderboard ranks forecasters by average score per market. This means consistent accuracy matters more than just making lots of predictions.

Minimum requirement: You need at least 5 resolved predictions to qualify for the leaderboard.

Ready to start?

How It Works

Rig Load is simple: we ask questions about the freight market, you make predictions and we track who gets it right.

1. Browse Markets

We post prediction markets on freight rates, industry indices and major events. Each market has a clear question and a resolution date — the date we'll check the answer.

Examples:

"What will the national dry van spot rate be in Q1 2025?"
"Will diesel prices exceed $4.00/gallon by March?"
"Will the OTVI exceed 12,000 in January?"

2. Make Your Forecast

For yes/no questions, simply vote Yes or No.

For numeric questions (like rate predictions), enter your best estimate using the slider or input field.

15-Minute Change Window

You have 15 minutes to change your mind after submitting. After that, your forecast is locked. This ensures everyone has skin in the game and can't just follow the crowd at the last minute.

3. See the Consensus

Every market shows the crowd consensus — the aggregate of all forecasts. Watch how it shifts as new predictions come in and market conditions change.

4. Resolution & Scoring

When a market's resolution date arrives, we check the actual outcome against the official data source (DAT, FreightWaves, EIA, etc.) and score everyone's predictions.

Base Score

Your base score reflects prediction accuracy:

For yes/no questions (0-100 points):

Correct prediction = 100 points
Incorrect prediction = 0 points

For numeric questions (0-150 points):

Exactly right = 150 points
Score follows a quadratic curve based on your percentage error — small misses cost little, but larger errors are penalized increasingly
Numeric questions earn 1.5x points because predicting an exact value is harder than choosing yes or no

Numeric scoring examples:

5% off → ~135 points
10% off → ~122 points
20% off → ~96 points
30% off → ~74 points
50% off → ~38 points

Early Bird Bonus (up to +25 points)

We reward conviction! Forecast early and earn bonus points if you're right.

The earlier you forecast, the higher your potential bonus
Bonus scales with market duration - longer markets offer more bonus potential
Maximum bonus: +25 points (for markets 100+ days, forecasting when market opens)
Bonus decreases as the resolution date approaches
Bonus only awarded for correct predictions

How it works:

The maximum bonus depends on how long the market runs. The formula is: max bonus = market days ÷ 4 (capped at 25).

Examples:

100+ day market → up to 25 bonus points
60-day market → up to 15 bonus points
36-day market → up to 9 bonus points
16-day market → up to 4 bonus points

This rewards the greater conviction required to make long-range forecasts. The bonus you earn is based on how early you forecast within the market's timeframe.

What counts as "correct"? For yes/no questions, you need to pick the right answer. For numeric questions, your prediction must be within 5% of the actual outcome to qualify for the bonus.

Maximum Score

Yes/No questions: Maximum 125 points (100 base + 25 early bonus)

Numeric questions: Maximum 175 points (150 base + 25 early bonus)

Numeric questions earn 1.5x base points because they require more precision than yes/no predictions.

5. Climb the Leaderboard

Your accuracy is tracked over time. The best forecasters rise to the top of the leaderboard. Build your reputation as someone who actually knows where the freight market is heading.

Leaderboard Rankings

The leaderboard ranks forecasters by average score per market. This means consistent accuracy matters more than just making lots of predictions.

Minimum requirement: You need at least 5 resolved predictions to qualify for the leaderboard.