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Rig Load is an independent platform for exploring expectations around freight-related outcomes. Content is for informational purposes and does not constitute professional advice.

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Freight market predictions

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Rig Load is an independent platform for exploring expectations around freight-related outcomes. Content is for informational purposes and does not constitute professional advice.

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Rig Load. All rights reserved.

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Weekly freight analysis

Rig Load Report

Reporting and analysis on rates, capacity, fuel and policy, plus the forces shaping domestic transportation. Long-form analysis leads the page. Signal Check tracks shifts in freight sentiment.

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Rig Load

Freight market predictions

Platform

Browse Markets Market Archive Leaderboard

Resources

Blog How It Works About

Connect

Rig Load is an independent platform for exploring expectations around freight-related outcomes. Content is for informational purposes and does not constitute professional advice.

Terms of Service·Privacy Policy

Rig Load. All rights reserved.

Latest 9 published posts from the Rig Load Report archive.

The federal contractor rule is back. For most of trucking, that won't matter.

The federal contractor rule is back. For most of trucking, that won't matter.

Washington is rewriting the independent contractor test for the third time in five years. In California, New Jersey and Massachusetts, nobody is waiting.

Start with the week's main read. A deeper look at freight, fuel, capacity and the signals moving the market.

Signal Check

Short reads, faster signal

Brief looks at freight sentiment, fuel, capacity and the questions the market is watching.

February 20, 2026

Is the Freight Market Finally Turning?

Kevin Hill of CarrierSource and Brush Pass Research breaks down whether the freight market is finally turning after thre...

Read Signal Check

Recent analysis

Freight analysis in one place

Long-form analysis and shorter market reads from across the freight economy.

The other fluid problem

The other fluid problem

Diesel gets the headlines. The urea supply chain behind every truck's exhaust system is under the same pressure — and the cost exposure is harder to see.

Trucking spot rates just hit a cycle high. Diesel got them there.

Trucking spot rates just hit a cycle high. Diesel got them there.

The SONAR NTI.USA index is at $3 a mile, but the linehaul rate — what carriers actually get paid for the truck — hasn't yet recovered to where it...

The USMCA review just started. Trucking is struggling to pay attention.

The USMCA review just started. Trucking is struggling to pay attention.

The first formal review of the trade deal governing $354 billion in cross-border freight kicked off this week. The industry has bigger problems r...

The Dalilah Law and the capacity crunch not yet priced in

The Dalilah Law and the capacity crunch not yet priced in

The proposed CDL restrictions could pull hundreds of thousands of drivers off the road, but the recertification bottleneck may be the bigger stor...

What war in Iran means for diesel and domestic freight

What war in Iran means for diesel and domestic freight

The Strait of Hormuz closure is rewriting the fuel outlook for U.S. trucking just as the industry claws its way out of a three-year downturn.

FedEx wants its tariff money back. Will it actually get it?

February 28, 2026

FedEx wants its tariff money back. Will it actually get it?

FedEx filed suit seeking tariff refunds under IEEPA. The outcome could reshape carrier costs and shipper freight economics.

Why Freight Needs Its Own Prediction Market Platform

January 18, 2026

Why Freight Needs Its Own Prediction Market Platform

You're already making predictions about rates, diesel and volumes, but you're not getting credit when you're right. Rig Load wants to change that...