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January 1, 2027
Resolves YES if any monthly seasonally adjusted ATA reading in 2026 shows tonnage index ≥117.0 (2015=100 baseline). Otherwise NO. Source: https://www.trucking.org/
The tonnage index peaked at 117.4 in March 2022 and has trended down as excess capacity absorbed freight growth. Breaking 117 would signal genuine demand recovery beyond just seasonal patterns. October 2025 was 111.9.