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January 1, 2027
Compare total active interstate for-hire motor carrier authorities on January 1, 2026 vs December 31, 2026. Resolves YES if decline is >5%. Otherwise NO. Source: FMCSA SAFER database authority counts.
FMCSA enforcement actions, voluntary exits, and bankruptcies are removing capacity at unprecedented rates. A >5% decline would remove 40,000+ authorities and be the largest single-year contraction since FMCSA began tracking.