Will BLS report total truck driving employment below 3,600,000 in any month of Q1 2026?

Binary (Yes/No)·1 forecasters

Consensus

100%

Yes

1 Yes · 0 No

Your Forecast

Market Stats

Forecasters1

ClosesApr 4, 2026

Probability Over Time

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Resolution Details

Resolution Date

April 4, 2026

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any of January, February, or March 2026 seasonally adjusted truck driving employment (NAICS 533) falls below 3,600,000. Otherwise NO. Source: https://www.bls.gov/ces/

Additional Context

Total trucking employment (including drivers, managers, mechanics) was declining in late 2025. Breaking below 3.6M would represent a cumulative 150k+ decline from peak and signal capacity is tightening structurally.