Forecast now for up to +24.2 bonus points if your prediction is correct!
January 1, 2027
Resolves YES if any monthly seasonally adjusted BLS reading in 2026 shows truck transportation employment (NAICS 484) below 1,500,000. Otherwise NO. Source: https://www.bls.gov/ces/
November 2025 employment hit 1,509,600—the lowest since early pandemic. Breaking below 1.5M would represent a 6% decline from the 2022 peak of 1,587,700 and signal that capacity is tightening enough to potentially inflect rates.