events
Closes in 351 days
Will USMCA automotive rules of origin be modified in 2026?
Binary (Yes/No)·0 forecasters
Probability Over Time
No forecasts yet — be the first to make a prediction!
Early Bird Bonus
Forecast now for up to +24.3 bonus points if your prediction is correct!
97% of bonus still availableCloses in 351 days
Resolution Details
Resolution Date
January 1, 2027
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if any changes to regional value content (RVC), labor value content (LVC), or steel/aluminum requirements are formally adopted. Resolves NO if no changes are made. Source: USMCA Joint Commission announcements, USTR official press releases, or Federal Register notices.
Additional Context
Will the U.S., Mexico, and Canada agree to modify USMCA automotive rules of origin requirements before year-end? Automotive parts account for ~30% of U.S.-Mexico cross-border truck freight. The Trump administration is pushing for higher U.S.-content thresholds and stricter Chinese component restrictions. Tighter rules would force OEMs to restructure supply chains.