Resolves YES if BNSF and CSX (or their parent companies, including Berkshire Hathaway and CSX Corporation) announce a definitive merger agreement of equals or a similar combination on or before December 31, 2027 (11:59 PM ET). The announcement must be a definitive agreement, not a non-binding letter of intent or rumored discussion. Resolves NO otherwise, including if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed an amended merger application with the Surface Transportation Board on April 30, 2026, seeking approval for an $85 billion combination that would create the first single-line transcontinental Class I railroad. If the merger reaches STB approval, the strategic pressure on the remaining major Class I railroads to consolidate in response intensifies. BNSF (owned by Berkshire Hathaway) and CSX would face a competitor offering a single-line transcontinental product they cannot match, and the defensive merger logic becomes hard to dismiss. This market prices whether BNSF and CSX (or their parent companies) announce a definitive merger of equals or similar combination on or before December 31, 2027. A YES outcome would create the second transcontinental Class I and structurally change competitive dynamics for east-west long-haul freight.

Resolves YES if BNSF and CSX (or their parent companies, including Berkshire Hathaway and CSX Corporation) announce a definitive merger agreement of equals or a similar combination on or before December 31, 2027 (11:59 PM ET). The announcement must be a definitive agreement, not a non-binding letter of intent or rumored discussion. Resolves NO otherwise, including if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed an amended merger application with the Surface Transportation Board on April 30, 2026, seeking approval for an $85 billion combination that would create the first single-line transcontinental Class I railroad. If the merger reaches STB approval, the strategic pressure on the remaining major Class I railroads to consolidate in response intensifies. BNSF (owned by Berkshire Hathaway) and CSX would face a competitor offering a single-line transcontinental product they cannot match, and the defensive merger logic becomes hard to dismiss. This market prices whether BNSF and CSX (or their parent companies) announce a definitive merger of equals or similar combination on or before December 31, 2027. A YES outcome would create the second transcontinental Class I and structurally change competitive dynamics for east-west long-haul freight.