April 24, 2026
The freight downstream of a refund wave
While tariff refunds are more news article than real money, for a freight market already running tight, they still matter.
Read articleEarly forecasts on this market can earn up to +25.0 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
The bonus window spans about 342 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
April 1, 2027
Resolves YES if CBP issues a public announcement on or before March 31, 2027 (11:59 PM ET) stating that CAPE Phase 2 is live and accepting filings. Announcement must come from CBP directly via official press release, federal register notice or ACE portal update. Resolves NO otherwise.
CBP launched Phase 1 of the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) program on April 20, 2026, in response to the Supreme Court's 6-3 Feb. 20 ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs. Phase 1 accepts refund filings from importers of record on unliquidated entries and entries within 80 days of liquidation, covering roughly 6 billion in refund-eligible duties paid by more than 330,000 importers. Phase 2 is expected to expand eligibility to broader categories, downstream claimants and more complex multi-party refund structures, but CBP has not published a Phase 2 timeline. The question is whether CBP moves on a typical phased-rollout cadence or slow-walks the expansion — a mechanics test for whether the program delivers real refund dollars or becomes a footnote.
Rig Load Report posts linked directly to this market.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
Rig Load is an independent platform for exploring expectations around freight-related outcomes. Content is for informational purposes and does not constitute professional advice.
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Early forecasts on this market can earn up to +25.0 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
The bonus window spans about 342 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
April 1, 2027
Resolves YES if CBP issues a public announcement on or before March 31, 2027 (11:59 PM ET) stating that CAPE Phase 2 is live and accepting filings. Announcement must come from CBP directly via official press release, federal register notice or ACE portal update. Resolves NO otherwise.
CBP launched Phase 1 of the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) program on April 20, 2026, in response to the Supreme Court's 6-3 Feb. 20 ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs. Phase 1 accepts refund filings from importers of record on unliquidated entries and entries within 80 days of liquidation, covering roughly 6 billion in refund-eligible duties paid by more than 330,000 importers. Phase 2 is expected to expand eligibility to broader categories, downstream claimants and more complex multi-party refund structures, but CBP has not published a Phase 2 timeline. The question is whether CBP moves on a typical phased-rollout cadence or slow-walks the expansion — a mechanics test for whether the program delivers real refund dollars or becomes a footnote.
Rig Load Report posts linked directly to this market.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.