Resolves YES if CBP issues a public announcement on or before March 31, 2027 (11:59 PM ET) stating that CAPE Phase 2 is live and accepting filings. Announcement must come from CBP directly via official press release, federal register notice or ACE portal update. Resolves NO otherwise.

CBP launched Phase 1 of the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) program on April 20, 2026, in response to the Supreme Court's 6-3 Feb. 20 ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs. Phase 1 accepts refund filings from importers of record on unliquidated entries and entries within 80 days of liquidation, covering roughly 6 billion in refund-eligible duties paid by more than 330,000 importers. Phase 2 is expected to expand eligibility to broader categories, downstream claimants and more complex multi-party refund structures, but CBP has not published a Phase 2 timeline. The question is whether CBP moves on a typical phased-rollout cadence or slow-walks the expansion — a mechanics test for whether the program delivers real refund dollars or becomes a footnote.