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Browse freight prediction markets tracking truckload rates, contract pricing, diesel and other price signals shaping the freight cycle.
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Market Archive
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March 31, 2027
Resolves YES if PACCAR reports truck segment revenue divided by truck deliveries exceeding $200,000 per unit in any quarterly 10-Q or annual 10-K filing for fiscal year 2026. Use North American truck segment revenue and North American truck deliveries. Resolves NO if no quarter exceeds $200,000 per unit. Source: PACCAR SEC filings (10-Q and 10-K), available at sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000075362.
Tariffs on truck components, including the 25% Section 232 duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, are pushing new Class 8 truck prices sharply higher. ACT Research projects a $10,000 tariff-driven increase per unit, while ATA estimates the total impact at $35,000 per truck, potentially pushing costs to $238,000 including the 12% federal excise tax. PACCAR, the parent of Kenworth and Peterbilt, reports truck revenue and deliveries quarterly in SEC filings — making average revenue per truck a clean, auditable proxy for where new truck prices are heading.
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