Will a Class I freight rail strike lasting 48+ hours occur in 2026?

Binary (Yes/No)

Consensus

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Market Stats

ClosesJan 1, 2027

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Resolution Details

Resolution Date

January 1, 2027

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if BNSF, UP, CSX, NS, CP, or CN experience a strike of 48+ hours. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Major media (WSJ, AAR, Progressive Railroading) or union press releases.

Additional Context

Will any major U.S. Class I freight railroad experience a labor strike lasting 48+ hours in 2026? Congress blocked a rail strike in December 2022 by forcing workers to accept contracts. Labor tensions remain high over scheduling, sick leave, and precision scheduled railroading. A rail strike would immediately collapse intermodal capacity and force freight to trucks, spiking spot rates 40-60% within days.