February 28, 2026
FedEx wants its tariff money back. Will it actually get it?
FedEx filed suit seeking tariff refunds under IEEPA. The outcome could reshape carrier costs and shipper freight economics.
Read articleEarly forecasts on this market can earn up to +25.0 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
The bonus window spans about 675 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
December 31, 2027
Resolves YES if FedEx receives any refund of IEEPA-related tariff duties — whether through court judgment, government-initiated refund program or legislative action — as confirmed by court filings, SEC disclosures or official FedEx statements by Dec. 31, 2027. Resolves NO if FedEx has not received any refund by that date.
FedEx filed a lawsuit on Feb. 23, 2026, in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking a full refund of tariffs paid under President Donald Trump's IEEPA authority, days after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs. FedEx has estimated roughly $1 billion in tariff-related earnings impact for its fiscal year. The suit names U.S. Customs and Border Protection, CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott and the U.S. government as defendants. Other major companies — including Costco, Revlon and Bumble Bee Foods — have filed similar suits, and Senate Democrats have introduced a bill requiring CBP to issue refunds within 180 days. Trump told reporters the matter would have to "get litigated for the next two years."
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Rig Load is an independent platform for exploring expectations around freight-related outcomes. Content is for informational purposes and does not constitute professional advice.
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Early forecasts on this market can earn up to +25.0 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
The bonus window spans about 675 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
December 31, 2027
Resolves YES if FedEx receives any refund of IEEPA-related tariff duties — whether through court judgment, government-initiated refund program or legislative action — as confirmed by court filings, SEC disclosures or official FedEx statements by Dec. 31, 2027. Resolves NO if FedEx has not received any refund by that date.
FedEx filed a lawsuit on Feb. 23, 2026, in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking a full refund of tariffs paid under President Donald Trump's IEEPA authority, days after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs. FedEx has estimated roughly $1 billion in tariff-related earnings impact for its fiscal year. The suit names U.S. Customs and Border Protection, CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott and the U.S. government as defendants. Other major companies — including Costco, Revlon and Bumble Bee Foods — have filed similar suits, and Senate Democrats have introduced a bill requiring CBP to issue refunds within 180 days. Trump told reporters the matter would have to "get litigated for the next two years."
Rig Load Report posts linked directly to this market.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.