Will the ILA conduct a 24+ hour work stoppage in 2026?

Binary (Yes/No)

Consensus

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Your Forecast

Market Stats

ClosesJan 1, 2027

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Resolution Details

Resolution Date

January 1, 2027

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any ILA work stoppage of 24+ hours occurs at East or Gulf Coast ports. Resolves NO if no strikes occur. Source: Major media reports (Transport Topics, JOC, WSJ) or ILA/USMX official statements.

Additional Context

Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) conduct a work stoppage lasting 24+ hours at East or Gulf Coast ports in 2026? The ILA and USMX reached a tentative 6-year contract in January 2025, ratified in February with 99% approval. However, automation language remains contentious—the agreement only prohibits "fully automated" terminals, leaving room for disputes over "semi-automated" equipment.