Will the number of active for-hire motor carrier authorities decrease by more than 5% in 2026?

Binary (Yes/No)

Consensus

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Your Forecast

Market Stats

ClosesJan 1, 2027

Probability Over Time

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Resolution Details

Resolution Date

January 1, 2027

Resolution Criteria

Compare total active interstate for-hire motor carrier authorities on January 1, 2026 vs December 31, 2026. Resolves YES if decline is >5%. Otherwise NO. Source: FMCSA SAFER database authority counts.

Additional Context

FMCSA enforcement actions, voluntary exits, and bankruptcies are removing capacity at unprecedented rates. A >5% decline would remove 40,000+ authorities and be the largest single-year contraction since FMCSA began tracking.