Will the Supreme Court strike down Trump's tariffs?

Resolves YES if the Supreme Court majority opinion strikes down, invalidates, or rules illegal any portion of Trump's IEEPA-based tariffs (the "reciprocal tariffs" or "trafficking tariffs"). Resolves NO if the Court upholds Trump's tariff authority under IEEPA or dismisses the case without reaching the merits. Source: Supreme Court official opinion in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump and consolidated cases.

Will the Supreme Court rule that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs is unconstitutional or beyond statutory authority? This is the single highest-stakes trade case in decades. The Court heard oral arguments in November 2025, with opinions expected January-February 2026. If struck down, importers could receive $130+ billion in refunds and Trump would lose his primary tool for imposing new tariffs without Congressional approval.