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January 1, 2027
Resolves YES if at any point in 2026, publicly reported DAT dry van national average spot rate (all-in $/mile) exceeds national average contract rate. Otherwise NO. Source: DAT public blog posts/press releases.
Spot above contract signals tight capacity and carrier pricing power. Spot has traded below contract for the entire 2023-2025 downturn. A flip would indicate the market has fundamentally turned, triggering contract rate increases in the following 6-12 months.