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Closes in 34 days
Will BLS report total truck driving employment below 3,600,000 in any month of Q1 2026?
Binary (Yes/No)
Probability Over Time
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Resolution Details
Resolution Date
April 4, 2026
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if any of January, February, or March 2026 seasonally adjusted truck driving employment (NAICS 533) falls below 3,600,000. Otherwise NO. Source: https://www.bls.gov/ces/
Additional Context
Total trucking employment (including drivers, managers, mechanics) was declining in late 2025. Breaking below 3.6M would represent a cumulative 150k+ decline from peak and signal capacity is tightening structurally.
Recent Activity
A forecaster predicted Yes6 days ago
A forecaster predicted No9 days ago
A forecaster predicted Yes24 days ago
A forecaster predicted No26 days ago
A forecaster predicted Yes27 days ago
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