Will the ATA Truck Tonnage Index exceed 117.0 in any month of 2026?

Binary (Yes/No)

Consensus

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Market Stats

ClosesJan 1, 2027

Probability Over Time

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Resolution Details

Resolution Date

January 1, 2027

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any monthly seasonally adjusted ATA reading in 2026 shows tonnage index ≥117.0 (2015=100 baseline). Otherwise NO. Source: https://www.trucking.org/

Additional Context

The tonnage index peaked at 117.4 in March 2022 and has trended down as excess capacity absorbed freight growth. Breaking 117 would signal genuine demand recovery beyond just seasonal patterns. October 2025 was 111.9.