Will ISM Manufacturing PMI exceed 52.0 in any month of 2026?

Binary (Yes/No)

Consensus

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Market Stats

ClosesJan 1, 2027

Probability Over Time

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Resolution Details

Resolution Date

January 1, 2027

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any monthly Manufacturing PMI reading in 2026 is ≥52.0. Otherwise NO. Source: https://www.ismworld.org/

Additional Context

Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 (contraction) for 9 consecutive months as of November 2025 at 48.2. Breaking above 52 would signal not just expansion but robust growth in freight-generating industrial activity.