Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June 2026 exceed 50.5?

Binary (Yes/No)

Consensus

75%

Yes

3 Yes · 1 No

Your Forecast

Market Stats

Last forecast24 days ago

ClosesJul 1, 2026

Probability Over Time

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Resolution Details

Resolution Date

July 1, 2026

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if June 2026 Manufacturing PMI >50.5. Otherwise NO. Source: https://www.ismworld.org/

Additional Context

Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction (<50) for most of 2025. Breaking above 50.5 signals not just expansion but solid growth in manufacturing activity. Freight demand is heavily weighted to manufacturing output.

Recent Activity

A forecaster predicted No24 days ago

A forecaster predicted Yes26 days ago

A forecaster predicted Yes27 days ago