April 18, 2026
What to do when your freight bid stops working
If you're a shipper or broker staring at a rejection report that looks nothing like the bid you submitted last fall, you have company. The 2026 R...
Read articleEarly forecasts on this market can earn up to +25.0 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
The bonus window spans about 271 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
January 2, 2027
Resolves YES if the FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) daily reading exceeds 20.00 on any single day between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if OTRI remains at or below 20.00 for every day of 2026. Source: FreightWaves SONAR OTRI ticker. In the event of a SONAR methodology change or data interruption, the Rig Load editorial team will designate the primary reference at resolution.
The FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Reject Index sits near 14% as of early April 2026, a reading that reflects modestly tightening capacity but stops well short of crisis territory. The 20% threshold marks genuine capacity emergencies: OTRI pushed above 25% during the 2018 capacity crunch, spiked into the high 20s during the 2020 COVID reopening, and briefly touched 20% after the late 2024 hurricane season. Getting back there in 2026 would require some combination of accelerating carrier exits, the non-domiciled CDL purge working through the driver pool, a demand surge, or a supply shock on par with a major storm or labor stoppage. Craig Fuller has called this "the Great Capacity Purge" and predicted major carrier bankruptcies are coming. Whether that tightens the market enough to push OTRI above 20% is exactly the kind of binary forecasters should be pricing.
Rig Load Report posts linked directly to this market.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
Rig Load is an independent platform for exploring expectations around freight-related outcomes. Content is for informational purposes and does not constitute professional advice.
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Early forecasts on this market can earn up to +25.0 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
The bonus window spans about 271 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
January 2, 2027
Resolves YES if the FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) daily reading exceeds 20.00 on any single day between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if OTRI remains at or below 20.00 for every day of 2026. Source: FreightWaves SONAR OTRI ticker. In the event of a SONAR methodology change or data interruption, the Rig Load editorial team will designate the primary reference at resolution.
The FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Reject Index sits near 14% as of early April 2026, a reading that reflects modestly tightening capacity but stops well short of crisis territory. The 20% threshold marks genuine capacity emergencies: OTRI pushed above 25% during the 2018 capacity crunch, spiked into the high 20s during the 2020 COVID reopening, and briefly touched 20% after the late 2024 hurricane season. Getting back there in 2026 would require some combination of accelerating carrier exits, the non-domiciled CDL purge working through the driver pool, a demand surge, or a supply shock on par with a major storm or labor stoppage. Craig Fuller has called this "the Great Capacity Purge" and predicted major carrier bankruptcies are coming. Whether that tightens the market enough to push OTRI above 20% is exactly the kind of binary forecasters should be pricing.
Rig Load Report posts linked directly to this market.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.