This market has been scored against the published resolution criteria. The result, final crowd consensus and source rules are preserved here so readers can compare the forecast with what actually happened.
April 2, 2026
Resolves YES if any monthly seasonally adjusted BLS reading in 2026 shows truck transportation employment (NAICS 484) below 1,500,000. Otherwise NO. Source: https://www.bls.gov/ces/
November 2025 employment hit 1,509,600—the lowest since early pandemic. Breaking below 1.5M would represent a 6% decline from the 2022 peak of 1,587,700 and signal that capacity is tightening enough to potentially inflect rates.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
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This market has been scored against the published resolution criteria. The result, final crowd consensus and source rules are preserved here so readers can compare the forecast with what actually happened.
April 2, 2026
Resolves YES if any monthly seasonally adjusted BLS reading in 2026 shows truck transportation employment (NAICS 484) below 1,500,000. Otherwise NO. Source: https://www.bls.gov/ces/
November 2025 employment hit 1,509,600—the lowest since early pandemic. Breaking below 1.5M would represent a 6% decline from the 2022 peak of 1,587,700 and signal that capacity is tightening enough to potentially inflect rates.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.