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January 1, 2027
Resolves YES if any monthly seasonally adjusted BLS reading in 2026 shows truck transportation employment (NAICS 484) below 1,500,000. Otherwise NO. Source: https://www.bls.gov/ces/
November 2025 employment hit 1,509,600—the lowest since early pandemic. Breaking below 1.5M would represent a 6% decline from the 2022 peak of 1,587,700 and signal that capacity is tightening enough to potentially inflect rates.