March 21, 2026
The USMCA review just started. Trucking is struggling to pay attention.
The first formal review of the trade deal governing $354 billion in cross-border freight kicked off this week. The industry has bigger problems r...
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events
Closes Jul 15, 2026
Will the U.S. withhold USMCA renewal at the July 2026 review?
Binary (Yes/No)
Probability Over Time
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Resolution Details
Resolution Date
July 15, 2026
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the U.S. officially announces it will NOT approve USMCA extension to 2042 or formally triggers the annual review/sunset process. Resolves NO if the U.S. approves renewal or defers the decision without triggering sunset. Source: Official USTR statements, joint commission public communiqués, or White House announcements.
Additional Context
Will the United States formally withhold approval for USMCA renewal (past 2036) at the mandatory July 1, 2026 joint review meeting? Trump has explicitly stated he will "invoke the six-year renegotiation provision." Withholding renewal would start a 10-year countdown to USMCA expiration and signal the U.S. wants major changes to automotive rules of origin, forced labor provisions, and Chinese manufacturing restrictions.
Recent Activity
A forecaster predicted NoApr 3, 2026
A forecaster predicted YesApr 2, 2026
A forecaster predicted YesMar 29, 2026
A forecaster predicted YesMar 27, 2026
A forecaster predicted NoMar 24, 2026
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