Will the national average diesel price fall below $3.25/gallon at any point in Q2 2026?
EIA forecasts diesel averaging $3.41/gal in Q2, but the $3.25 threshold would represent the lowest sustained diesel prices since 2021. This level...
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July 7, 2026
$2.00/gal - $6.00/gal
Use the Mansfield Energy national DEF pump price index or NATSO national average DEF price for the reporting period closest to June 30, 2026. If neither publishes a June 30 reading, use the most recent weekly reading before that date. Round to the nearest cent. Source: Mansfield Energy DEF price reports or NATSO Truckstop DEF price survey.
Urea prices at the NOLA trading hub jumped $70 per short ton in a single week to $468–$620/ton after the Strait of Hormuz disruption choked off 25% of global urea exports. Every $100/ton of urea price movement translates to roughly $0.15/gallon at the DEF pump. Unlike crude oil, there are no strategic urea reserves. The Dyno Nobel Helens plant is closing in early 2026, removing more domestic production. Truck stop DEF is currently running $2.80–$3.80/gallon nationally. This market asks whether the urea supply squeeze pushes DEF to levels that become a material operating cost, not just an afterthought on the fuel island.
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