April 4, 2026
The other fluid problem
Diesel gets the headlines. The urea supply chain behind every truck's exhaust system is under the same pressure — and the cost exposure is harder...
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The bonus window spans about 100 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
July 7, 2026
$2.00/gal - $6.00/gal
Use the Mansfield Energy national DEF pump price index or NATSO national average DEF price for the reporting period closest to June 30, 2026. If neither publishes a June 30 reading, use the most recent weekly reading before that date. Round to the nearest cent. Source: Mansfield Energy DEF price reports or NATSO Truckstop DEF price survey.
Urea prices at the NOLA trading hub jumped $70 per short ton in a single week to $468–$620/ton after the Strait of Hormuz disruption choked off 25% of global urea exports. Every $100/ton of urea price movement translates to roughly $0.15/gallon at the DEF pump. Unlike crude oil, there are no strategic urea reserves. The Dyno Nobel Helens plant is closing in early 2026, removing more domestic production. Truck stop DEF is currently running $2.80–$3.80/gallon nationally. This market asks whether the urea supply squeeze pushes DEF to levels that become a material operating cost, not just an afterthought on the fuel island.
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Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
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Early forecasts on this market can earn up to +25.0 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
The bonus window spans about 100 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
July 7, 2026
$2.00/gal - $6.00/gal
Use the Mansfield Energy national DEF pump price index or NATSO national average DEF price for the reporting period closest to June 30, 2026. If neither publishes a June 30 reading, use the most recent weekly reading before that date. Round to the nearest cent. Source: Mansfield Energy DEF price reports or NATSO Truckstop DEF price survey.
Urea prices at the NOLA trading hub jumped $70 per short ton in a single week to $468–$620/ton after the Strait of Hormuz disruption choked off 25% of global urea exports. Every $100/ton of urea price movement translates to roughly $0.15/gallon at the DEF pump. Unlike crude oil, there are no strategic urea reserves. The Dyno Nobel Helens plant is closing in early 2026, removing more domestic production. Truck stop DEF is currently running $2.80–$3.80/gallon nationally. This market asks whether the urea supply squeeze pushes DEF to levels that become a material operating cost, not just an afterthought on the fuel island.
Rig Load Report posts linked directly to this market.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.