rates
Part 1
Resolved
rates
Closes Jul 2, 2026
Will the national spot truckload rate (SONAR NTI.USA) exceed $3.15/mile at the end of June 2026?
Binary (Yes/No)
Early forecasts on this market can earn up to +19.1 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
The bonus window spans about 77 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
July 2, 2026
Resolves YES if FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA reads above $3.15/mile on the last business day of June 2026. Resolves NO if NTI.USA reads at or below $3.15/mile. If data is unavailable on the final business day, the most recent prior reading is used. NTI.USA is the all-in rate including fuel surcharge. Source: FreightWaves SONAR.
June sits in the heart of the summer shipping season, historically one of the stronger months for spot truckload demand. Beverage, produce and consumer goods freight peaks as retailers push inventory for Q3. The Sonar NTI.USA national truckload index must close the month above $3.15 to resolve YES. With capacity contracting and ACT Research noting the For-Hire Driver Availability Index tightened to 35.0 in March 2026, supply-side pressure supports rate firmness. Fuel remains a wildcard: if Hormuz traffic resumes and diesel drops, the national spot rate could soften even as underlying linehaul rates rise.
Part 3 of 4 in NTI Monthly 2026
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
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OTR Solutions President Clayton Griffin challenged FreightWaves' Craig Fuller to a $5,000 charity bet on whether the national spot truckload rate breaks $3.00/mile by the end of March. Griffin is taking the under. Fuller is taking the over. The barometer is FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA, the national truckload index, which reflects the all-in spot rate per mile including fuel surcharge. The reading in mid-February is around $2.78/mile, meaning rates would need to climb roughly 8% in the next six weeks for the over to hit. How bullish are you?
Early forecasts on this market can earn up to +19.1 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
The bonus window spans about 77 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
July 2, 2026
Resolves YES if FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA reads above $3.15/mile on the last business day of June 2026. Resolves NO if NTI.USA reads at or below $3.15/mile. If data is unavailable on the final business day, the most recent prior reading is used. NTI.USA is the all-in rate including fuel surcharge. Source: FreightWaves SONAR.
June sits in the heart of the summer shipping season, historically one of the stronger months for spot truckload demand. Beverage, produce and consumer goods freight peaks as retailers push inventory for Q3. The Sonar NTI.USA national truckload index must close the month above $3.15 to resolve YES. With capacity contracting and ACT Research noting the For-Hire Driver Availability Index tightened to 35.0 in March 2026, supply-side pressure supports rate firmness. Fuel remains a wildcard: if Hormuz traffic resumes and diesel drops, the national spot rate could soften even as underlying linehaul rates rise.
Part 3 of 4 in NTI Monthly 2026
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
OTR Solutions President Clayton Griffin challenged FreightWaves' Craig Fuller to a $5,000 charity bet on whether the national spot truckload rate breaks $3.00/mile by the end of March. Griffin is taking the under. Fuller is taking the over. The barometer is FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA, the national truckload index, which reflects the all-in spot rate per mile including fuel surcharge. The reading in mid-February is around $2.78/mile, meaning rates would need to climb roughly 8% in the next six weeks for the over to hit. How bullish are you?