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July 7, 2026
0 - 30
Count the number of weekly EIA national average diesel price readings between April 1 and June 30, 2026 that are at or above $4.50/gallon. There are 13 possible weekly readings in Q2. Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
Diesel is at $5.38/gallon. The EIA's March forecast revised the 2026 average to $4.12 — up 20% from the prior estimate — but that average assumes a decline from current levels as Brent crude is forecast to fall below $80/barrel by Q3. This market isn't asking where diesel ends up — it's asking how long the pain lasts. Every week above $4.50 compounds losses for carriers whose fuel surcharges don't fully offset the cost. The answer depends almost entirely on Hormuz: if shipping resumes, diesel drops fast. If the toll system persists, $4.50+ could be the floor for months.
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