Resolves YES if U.S. domestic container intermodal volume for the third quarter of 2026 (July, August and September) is at least 5.0% higher than the same three months of 2025, as reported by the Intermodal Association of North America. The figure is the sum of IANA-reported domestic container volume across the three months; trailers and international (ISO) containers are excluded. Resolves NO otherwise. IANA volumes are subject to revision; the figures as published in IANA's monthly releases covering Q3 2026 will be used.

Domestic intermodal moves 53-foot containers on lanes that compete directly with over-the-road truckload, so it is the rail segment most sensitive to truckload pricing. With truckload spot rates near cycle highs through the first half of 2026 and domestic intermodal spot rates still well below them, the question is how much freight the gap pulls onto the rails. Through May 2026, domestic container volume was running about 4.9% ahead of 2025 year to date, and up 1.7% year-over-year in May, on IANA data. This market asks whether that growth reaches at least 5% in the third quarter. A companion market asks whether intermodal pricing power returns alongside the volume.

Resolves YES if U.S. domestic container intermodal volume for the third quarter of 2026 (July, August and September) is at least 5.0% higher than the same three months of 2025, as reported by the Intermodal Association of North America. The figure is the sum of IANA-reported domestic container volume across the three months; trailers and international (ISO) containers are excluded. Resolves NO otherwise. IANA volumes are subject to revision; the figures as published in IANA's monthly releases covering Q3 2026 will be used.

Domestic intermodal moves 53-foot containers on lanes that compete directly with over-the-road truckload, so it is the rail segment most sensitive to truckload pricing. With truckload spot rates near cycle highs through the first half of 2026 and domestic intermodal spot rates still well below them, the question is how much freight the gap pulls onto the rails. Through May 2026, domestic container volume was running about 4.9% ahead of 2025 year to date, and up 1.7% year-over-year in May, on IANA data. This market asks whether that growth reaches at least 5% in the third quarter. A companion market asks whether intermodal pricing power returns alongside the volume.