February 20, 2026
Signal Check
Is the Freight Market Finally Turning?
Kevin Hill of CarrierSource and Brush Pass Research breaks down whether the freight market is finally turning after three years of downcycle.
Read articleThis market has been scored against the published resolution criteria. The result, final crowd consensus and source rules are preserved here so readers can compare the forecast with what actually happened.
March 25, 2026
Resolves YES if the four-week rolling average of the CarrierSource Shipper Activity Index for the four weeks ending March 22, 2026 exceeds 89.66. Resolves NO if the rolling average reads at or below 89.66. Source: CarrierSource.
The CarrierSource Shipper Activity Index tracks how actively shippers are sourcing carriers on the platform, serving as a proxy for demand intensity and capacity availability. Because the index moves in sharp weekly swings, this market uses the four-week rolling average for a smoothed view of the underlying trend. During the same four-week window in 2025 (ending March 23, 2025), the rolling average stood at 89.66, just before the reciprocal tariff announcements collapsed the market. The current four-week rolling average, as of Feb. 9-15, 2026, is 89.81 — essentially flat with last year's benchmark at the same point in time.
Rig Load Report posts linked directly to this market.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
Rig Load is an independent platform for exploring expectations around freight-related outcomes. Content is for informational purposes and does not constitute professional advice.
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This market has been scored against the published resolution criteria. The result, final crowd consensus and source rules are preserved here so readers can compare the forecast with what actually happened.
March 25, 2026
Resolves YES if the four-week rolling average of the CarrierSource Shipper Activity Index for the four weeks ending March 22, 2026 exceeds 89.66. Resolves NO if the rolling average reads at or below 89.66. Source: CarrierSource.
The CarrierSource Shipper Activity Index tracks how actively shippers are sourcing carriers on the platform, serving as a proxy for demand intensity and capacity availability. Because the index moves in sharp weekly swings, this market uses the four-week rolling average for a smoothed view of the underlying trend. During the same four-week window in 2025 (ending March 23, 2025), the rolling average stood at 89.66, just before the reciprocal tariff announcements collapsed the market. The current four-week rolling average, as of Feb. 9-15, 2026, is 89.81 — essentially flat with last year's benchmark at the same point in time.
Rig Load Report posts linked directly to this market.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.