Will the four-week rolling average of the CarrierSource Shipper Activity Index for the period ending March 22, 2026 exceed 89.66?

Resolves YES if the four-week rolling average of the CarrierSource Shipper Activity Index for the four weeks ending March 22, 2026 exceeds 89.66. Resolves NO if the rolling average reads at or below 89.66. Source: CarrierSource.

The CarrierSource Shipper Activity Index tracks how actively shippers are sourcing carriers on the platform, serving as a proxy for demand intensity and capacity availability. Because the index moves in sharp weekly swings, this market uses the four-week rolling average for a smoothed view of the underlying trend. During the same four-week window in 2025 (ending March 23, 2025), the rolling average stood at 89.66, just before the reciprocal tariff announcements collapsed the market. The current four-week rolling average, as of Feb. 9-15, 2026, is 89.81 — essentially flat with last year's benchmark at the same point in time.