

Forecast now for up to +25.0 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
January 15, 2027
Resolves YES if the Surface Transportation Board formally accepts the revised Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger application and initiates a full substantive review proceeding (i.e., sets a procedural schedule for merits review) by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if the application is rejected again, withdrawn, or no accepted application enters substantive review by year-end. Source: STB press releases, Federal Register notices, or official STB docket entries.
Union Pacific filed an $85 billion merger application with the Surface Transportation Board on Dec. 19, 2025, seeking to acquire Norfolk Southern and create the first transcontinental railroad since the 19th century. The STB rejected the initial application as incomplete on Jan. 16, 2026. UP plans to refile a revised application by April 30. If accepted for review, the combined railroad would create 10,000 single-line service lanes and claims it would divert 2 million truckloads annually from highway to rail. The STB has set a June 22, 2026 deadline for any refiled application.
Rig Load is an independent platform for exploring expectations around freight-related outcomes. Content is for informational purposes and does not constitute professional advice.
Rig Load. All rights reserved.
Forecast now for up to +25.0 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
January 15, 2027
Resolves YES if the Surface Transportation Board formally accepts the revised Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger application and initiates a full substantive review proceeding (i.e., sets a procedural schedule for merits review) by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if the application is rejected again, withdrawn, or no accepted application enters substantive review by year-end. Source: STB press releases, Federal Register notices, or official STB docket entries.
Union Pacific filed an $85 billion merger application with the Surface Transportation Board on Dec. 19, 2025, seeking to acquire Norfolk Southern and create the first transcontinental railroad since the 19th century. The STB rejected the initial application as incomplete on Jan. 16, 2026. UP plans to refile a revised application by April 30. If accepted for review, the combined railroad would create 10,000 single-line service lanes and claims it would divert 2 million truckloads annually from highway to rail. The STB has set a June 22, 2026 deadline for any refiled application.
Rig Load is an independent platform for exploring expectations around freight-related outcomes. Content is for informational purposes and does not constitute professional advice.
Rig Load. All rights reserved.