Early forecasts on this market can earn up to +25.0 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
The bonus window spans about 172 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
October 1, 2026
Resolves YES if the FreightWaves SONAR VCRPMF.USA daily reading equals or exceeds 2.75 on any single day between the market open date and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves NO if VCRPMF.USA does not reach 2.75 at any point during that window. Data source: FreightWaves SONAR VCRPMF.USA (Van Contract Rate Per Mile, Final Reporting, national). In the event FreightWaves discontinues or renames this index, resolution will use the closest available successor metric for national average contract van rates.
FreightWaves SONAR VCRPMF.USA (national average contract van rate, final reporting) sits at $2.48/mile in early April 2026. Capacity is tightening — OTRI doubled since November to 14.46% in March, spot rates are up 23% year over year, and the contract-spot spread has compressed to $0.12. The question is whether sustained tightening translates into real contract repricing before Q4, or whether macro headwinds (diesel/Iran, consumer demand uncertainty) cap the run.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
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