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Follow the NTI Monthly 2026 market series on Rig Load, including resolved outcomes, active installments and what comes next.
OTR Solutions President Clayton Griffin challenged FreightWaves' Craig Fuller to a $5,000 charity bet on whether the national spot truckload rate breaks $3.00/mile by the end of March. Griffin is taking the under. Fuller is taking the over. The barometer is FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA, the national truckload index, which reflects the all-in spot rate per mile including fuel surcharge. The reading in mid-February is around $2.78/mile, meaning rates would need to climb roughly 8% in the next six weeks for the over to hit. How bullish are you?
The Sonar NTI.USA is the national truckload index tracking all-in spot rates per mile including fuel surcharge. It broke above $3.00 in late March, lifted in part by the diesel spike from the Iran-Hormuz conflict. May typically sees seasonal produce and retail freight push spot truckload volumes higher. This market asks whether spot rates can close the month above $3.10 on the last business day. ACT Research reported a driver shortage re-emerging in March 2026, and diesel remains above $4.50 per gallon. The question is whether the rate strength persists if fuel prices pull back.
June sits in the heart of the summer shipping season, historically one of the stronger months for spot truckload demand. Beverage, produce and consumer goods freight peaks as retailers push inventory for Q3. The Sonar NTI.USA national truckload index must close the month above $3.15 to resolve YES. With capacity contracting and ACT Research noting the For-Hire Driver Availability Index tightened to 35.0 in March 2026, supply-side pressure supports rate firmness. Fuel remains a wildcard: if Hormuz traffic resumes and diesel drops, the national spot rate could soften even as underlying linehaul rates rise.
July is typically when summer freight demand crests before a seasonal pause in August. Retail replenishment for back-to-school and beverage distribution keep trucks loaded, but produce season begins to wind down. Closing above $3.20 on the national truckload index would mark the highest sustained NTI.USA spot pricing since 2022. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index was up 1.8% year over year in March 2026, and ACT Research expects contract rates to follow spot gains with a lag. Whether the spot truckload rate can hold $3.20 by month-end depends on the fuel outlook, the pace of carrier exits and how much seasonal demand remains.
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