rates
Part 1
Resolved
rates
Resolved May 11, 2026
Will the national spot truckload rate (SONAR NTI.USA) exceed $3.10/mile by the end of May 2026?
Binary (Yes/No)
May 11, 2026
Resolves YES if FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA reads above $3.10/mile on the last business day of May 2026. Resolves NO if NTI.USA reads at or below $3.10/mile. If data is unavailable on the final business day, the most recent prior reading is used. NTI.USA is the all-in rate including fuel surcharge. Source: FreightWaves SONAR.
The Sonar NTI.USA is the national truckload index tracking all-in spot rates per mile including fuel surcharge. It broke above $3.00 in late March, lifted in part by the diesel spike from the Iran-Hormuz conflict. May typically sees seasonal produce and retail freight push spot truckload volumes higher. This market asks whether spot rates can close the month above $3.10 on the last business day. ACT Research reported a driver shortage re-emerging in March 2026, and diesel remains above $4.50 per gallon. The question is whether the rate strength persists if fuel prices pull back.
Part 2 of 4 in NTI Monthly 2026
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
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OTR Solutions President Clayton Griffin challenged FreightWaves' Craig Fuller to a $5,000 charity bet on whether the national spot truckload rate breaks $3.00/mile by the end of March. Griffin is taking the under. Fuller is taking the over. The barometer is FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA, the national truckload index, which reflects the all-in spot rate per mile including fuel surcharge. The reading in mid-February is around $2.78/mile, meaning rates would need to climb roughly 8% in the next six weeks for the over to hit. How bullish are you?
May 11, 2026
Resolves YES if FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA reads above $3.10/mile on the last business day of May 2026. Resolves NO if NTI.USA reads at or below $3.10/mile. If data is unavailable on the final business day, the most recent prior reading is used. NTI.USA is the all-in rate including fuel surcharge. Source: FreightWaves SONAR.
The Sonar NTI.USA is the national truckload index tracking all-in spot rates per mile including fuel surcharge. It broke above $3.00 in late March, lifted in part by the diesel spike from the Iran-Hormuz conflict. May typically sees seasonal produce and retail freight push spot truckload volumes higher. This market asks whether spot rates can close the month above $3.10 on the last business day. ACT Research reported a driver shortage re-emerging in March 2026, and diesel remains above $4.50 per gallon. The question is whether the rate strength persists if fuel prices pull back.
Part 2 of 4 in NTI Monthly 2026
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
OTR Solutions President Clayton Griffin challenged FreightWaves' Craig Fuller to a $5,000 charity bet on whether the national spot truckload rate breaks $3.00/mile by the end of March. Griffin is taking the under. Fuller is taking the over. The barometer is FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA, the national truckload index, which reflects the all-in spot rate per mile including fuel surcharge. The reading in mid-February is around $2.78/mile, meaning rates would need to climb roughly 8% in the next six weeks for the over to hit. How bullish are you?