rates
Part 1
Resolved
This market has been scored against the published resolution criteria. The result, final crowd consensus and source rules are preserved here so readers can compare the forecast with what actually happened.
May 11, 2026
Resolves YES if FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA reads above $3.10/mile on the last business day of May 2026. Resolves NO if NTI.USA reads at or below $3.10/mile. If data is unavailable on the final business day, the most recent prior reading is used. NTI.USA is the all-in rate including fuel surcharge. Source: FreightWaves SONAR.
The Sonar NTI.USA is the national truckload index tracking all-in spot rates per mile including fuel surcharge. It broke above $3.00 in late March, lifted in part by the diesel spike from the Iran-Hormuz conflict. May typically sees seasonal produce and retail freight push spot truckload volumes higher. This market asks whether spot rates can close the month above $3.10 on the last business day. ACT Research reported a driver shortage re-emerging in March 2026, and diesel remains above $4.50 per gallon. The question is whether the rate strength persists if fuel prices pull back.
Part 2 of 4 in NTI Monthly 2026
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
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OTR Solutions President Clayton Griffin challenged FreightWaves' Craig Fuller to a $5,000 charity bet on whether the national spot truckload rate breaks $3.00/mile by the end of March. Griffin is taking the under. Fuller is taking the over. The barometer is FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA, the national truckload index, which reflects the all-in spot rate per mile including fuel surcharge. The reading in mid-February is around $2.78/mile, meaning rates would need to climb roughly 8% in the next six weeks for the over to hit. How bullish are you?
This market has been scored against the published resolution criteria. The result, final crowd consensus and source rules are preserved here so readers can compare the forecast with what actually happened.
May 11, 2026
Resolves YES if FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA reads above $3.10/mile on the last business day of May 2026. Resolves NO if NTI.USA reads at or below $3.10/mile. If data is unavailable on the final business day, the most recent prior reading is used. NTI.USA is the all-in rate including fuel surcharge. Source: FreightWaves SONAR.
The Sonar NTI.USA is the national truckload index tracking all-in spot rates per mile including fuel surcharge. It broke above $3.00 in late March, lifted in part by the diesel spike from the Iran-Hormuz conflict. May typically sees seasonal produce and retail freight push spot truckload volumes higher. This market asks whether spot rates can close the month above $3.10 on the last business day. ACT Research reported a driver shortage re-emerging in March 2026, and diesel remains above $4.50 per gallon. The question is whether the rate strength persists if fuel prices pull back.
Part 2 of 4 in NTI Monthly 2026
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
OTR Solutions President Clayton Griffin challenged FreightWaves' Craig Fuller to a $5,000 charity bet on whether the national spot truckload rate breaks $3.00/mile by the end of March. Griffin is taking the under. Fuller is taking the over. The barometer is FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA, the national truckload index, which reflects the all-in spot rate per mile including fuel surcharge. The reading in mid-February is around $2.78/mile, meaning rates would need to climb roughly 8% in the next six weeks for the over to hit. How bullish are you?