We are tracking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and will resolve this market once sustained shipping activity is confirmed. No decision has been made yet.
Early forecasts on this market can earn up to +25.0 bonus points if your prediction is correct.
The bonus window spans about 318 days between market open and close, with the largest bonus available to the earliest correct forecasts.
February 1, 2027
Resolves to the option containing the first date on which the 7-day rolling average of commercial tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz exceeds 50 per day, as reported by S&P Global Market Intelligence, UANI shipping tracker, or equivalent AIS-based vessel tracking data. The 50-transit threshold represents approximately half the pre-crisis baseline. If no 7-day average exceeds 50 transits before Dec. 31, 2026, resolves to "Not in 2026." Rig Load editorial team will designate the primary data source at resolution.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to Western-aligned commercial traffic since the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, 2026. Pre-crisis, more than 100 tankers transited daily, carrying roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Current traffic is near zero for non-Chinese, non-Iranian-flagged vessels. Diesel has jumped from $3.65 to above $5 a gallon in three weeks. This market asks when commercial shipping returns to meaningful volume.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
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